Today is Halloween, the night of horrors turned out in kids costumes in America. Halloween brings other horrible spectacles which may not just turn out to be childrens’ play. David S. Broder in “The war recovery?” published in the Washington Post ties the link of WW II as the end of the Depression in 1940, to a potential warlike scenario for the end of the current Great Recession.
Can Obama harness the forces that might spur new growth? This is the key question for the next two years.
What are those forces? Essentially, there are two. One is the power of the business cycle, the tidal force that throughout history has dictated when the economy expands and when it contracts.
Economists struggle to analyze this, but they almost inevitably conclude that it cannot be rushed and almost resists political command. As the saying goes, the market will go where it is going to go.
In this regard, Obama has no advantage over any other pol. Even in analyzing the tidal force correctly, he cannot control it.
What else might affect the economy? The answer is obvious, but its implications are frightening. War and peace influence the economy.
Look back at FDR and the Great Depression. What finally resolved that economic crisis? World War II.
Here is where Obama is likely to prevail. With strong Republican support in Congress for challenging Iran’s ambition to become a nuclear power, he can spend much of 2011 and 2012 orchestrating a showdown with the mullahs. This will help him politically because the opposition party will be urging him on. And as tensions rise and we accelerate preparations for war, the economy will improve.
I am not suggesting, of course, that the president incite a war to get reelected. But the nation will rally around Obama because Iran is the greatest threat to the world in the young century. If he can confront this threat and contain Iran’s nuclear ambitions, he will have made the world safer and may be regarded as one of the most successful presidents in history.
Listen clearly what Mr. Broder suggests: it is politically expedient and economically prudent to foster a war with Iran. This is horrific. This analysis ignores that we are ALREADY in two wars, started by the previous administration. (This may also suggest that we re-analyze the ‘prosperity’ of 2002-2007 as potentially due to market effects of a manufactured war footing.)
I sincerely hope that the war parachute will not need to be used to halt this current free fall.